This is an introduction to the main concepts of probability theory. Each lecture contains detailed proofs and derivations of all the main results, as well as solved exercises.

Events having zero probability, almost sure events, almost sure properties

Sample space, sample points, events, probability and its properties

Prior probability, posterior probability, updating

How to revise probabilities when new information arrives

Definition and explanation of independence and mutual independence

Joint distributions, marginal distributions

Discrete and continuous random variables, probability mass and density functions

Expected value and the Lebesgue integral

A rigorous definition of expected value, based on the Lebesgue integral

The mean of a random variable, how to compute it, its properties

Dispersion around the mean, definition, interpretation, properties

Properties of the expected value

Linearity of the expected value, expectation of positive random variables, other properties

Another measure of association between random variables

Association between random variables, definition, interpretation, properties

Equal to one when an event happens and zero otherwise

A multivariate generalization of the concept of variance

Cut-off point of a distribution that leaves to its left a given proportion of the distribution

Conditional probability distributions

How to update the distribution of a random variable after receiving some information

Conditional probability as a random variable

A more rigorous presentation of conditional probability

Definition and characterization of independence between random variables

How to compute the expected value of a random variable after observing the value of another

An important inequality derived from Markov's inequality

Provides an upper bound to the probability that a random variable will exceed a threshold

Concerns the expected value of convex and concave transformations of a random variable

Legitimate probability density functions

Properties of probability density functions and how to construct them

Legitimate probability mass functions

Properties of probability mass functions and how to construct them

Factorization of joint probability density functions

Factorization into marginal and conditional probability density function

Factorization of joint probability mass functions

Factorization into marginal and conditional probability mass function

Functions of random vectors and their distribution

How to derive the joint distribution of a function of a random vector

Functions of random variables and their distribution

How to derive the distribution of Y=g(X) from the distribution of X

Sums of independent random variables

How to derive the distribution of a sum from the distributions of the summands

Definition of cross-moment and central cross-moment of a random vector

Definition of moment and central moment of a random variable

Joint moment generating function

Generalizes the concept of moment generating function to random vectors

Definition, computation of moments, characterization of distributions

Generalizes the concept of characteristic function to random vectors

Definition, computation of moments, characterization of distributions

200 probability questions that you can use to check your knowledge

The book

Most learning materials found on this website are now available in a traditional textbook format.

Featured pages

- Central Limit Theorem
- Binomial distribution
- Combinations
- Normal distribution
- Mean square convergence
- Multinomial distribution

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Main sections

- Mathematical tools
- Fundamentals of probability
- Probability distributions
- Asymptotic theory
- Fundamentals of statistics
- Glossary

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